Elon Musk – More than 1,000 Optimus robots at Tesla factories next year

At Tesla’s 2024 shareholder meeting on Thursday 13/9/2024, Elon Musk pinned the company’s hopes on its Optimus robot program.

The CEO made some lofty claims, including that humanoid robots could boost Tesla’s market value to $25 trillion. On Thursday, Tesla was valued at about $580 billion.

Musk expects Tesla to mass-produce robots

Musk expects Tesla to mass-produce robots for about $10,000 and sell them for $20,000. He also said he expects the humanoid robot market to be about 1 billion units per year, and Tesla wants to capture at least 10% of them.

With that goal in mind, Musk wants to have 1,000 to 2,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla factories next year. Tesla has already deployed two robots at one of its factories, Business Insider reported, but it’s unclear what tasks they perform.

Musk talked about entering “limited production” in 2025, but didn’t mention customer deliveries.

During the Optimus demo in January, we saw a robot folding laundry. However, the demo was criticized by robotics engineers who said it was misleading because the robot was not autonomous but controlled by a human.

So far, Musk has been coy about what exactly Optimus can do. He said that one day, the robots could cook, clean, teach children, and even work in factories.

Elon Musk and his unrealistic timelines

Musk is known for his unrealistic timelines (the second-generation Roadster was years behind schedule), so take his plans for next year with a grain of salt—and maybe don’t start saving up right away for a robot to do your chores for you.

Elon Musk revealed a wild prediction for his company Thursday while celebrating Tesla shareholders’ overwhelming approval of his billion-dollar pay package: Tesla’s market value will eventually reach $30 trillion.

For comparison: Tesla’s market value was about $571 billion on Friday. The world’s most valuable companies are Microsoft and Apple, with market caps of about $3.28 trillion and $3.27 trillion, respectively.

Let’s learn about robots.

In the scenario Musk described, market demand for humanoid robots, such as Tesla’s Optimus Prime, would reach 1 billion units per year, and Tesla would capture about 10% of that market. The CEO also reiterated that the Optimus robot would eventually cost less than a car, about $10,000, while the cost would be between $20,000 and $30,000.

Musk said that at a price of $20,000 and sales of 100 million vehicles per year, Tesla could make $1 trillion in profits per year, which would increase Tesla’s market value by $20 to $25 trillion. Although Tesla said its factory uses at least two robots, those robots are not expected to be available until late 2025.

“We will begin limited production of Optimus for use in our factory next year,” Musk said. “My prediction is that Tesla will be using over 1,000 Optimus robots next year.”

Another $5 trillion will come from another type of autonomous vehicle — self-driving cars or robotaxis. Musk provided some details about Tesla’s vision for a fleet of self-driving cars, describing the idea as “a combination of Airbnb and Uber,” as owners can integrate their cars into the service as they wish. He also reiterated the idea that Tesla owners can earn money while they sleep, as Tesla itself will request the cars to pick up potential customers for its ride-hailing service.

Robotaxis — let alone trained fleets controlled by ride-hailing apps — are still years away, with an expected launch as early as 2027, when Tesla launches its next-generation platform.

Ryan Brinkman

“We expect Tesla to unveil the robotaxi concept on August 8, perhaps with a companion app, and reveal more about its intended business model,” JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said in a research note on Tuesday, referring to Musk’s much-hyped announcement date. “But we probably won’t expect to generate any significant revenue for several years.”

ARK Invest Management, owned by Tesla bull Cathie Wood, released a report on Wednesday predicting that Tesla’s stock price could rise to $3,100 per share by 2029. On Thursday, Musk called the report the most accurate analysis of Tesla’s future, with 90% of Tesla’s value and profits coming from robotaxis.

ARK expects the first year of commercialization of Tesla’s robotaxis to begin in 2025. If the ride-hailing service is not launched by 2029, the company’s stock price forecast will drop to $350 per share.

Sources:

• businessinsider
• qz.com